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Abstract Many regions of the planet have experienced an increase in fire activity in recent decades. Although such increases are consistent with warming and drying under continued climate change, the driving mechanisms remain uncertain. Here, we investigate the effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations on future fire activity using seven Earth system models. Centered on the time of carbon dioxide doubling, the multi-model mean percent change in fire carbon emissions is 66.4 ± 38.8% (versus 1850 carbon dioxide concentrations, under fixed 1850 land-use conditions). A substantial increase is associated with enhanced vegetation growth due to carbon dioxide biogeochemical impacts at 60.1 ± 46.9%. In contrast, carbon dioxide radiative impacts, including warming and drying, yield a negligible response of fire carbon emissions at 1.7 ± 9.4%. Although model representation of fire processes remains uncertain, our results show the importance of vegetation dynamics to future increases in fire activity under increasing carbon dioxide, with potentially important policy implications. 

Abstract. Wildfires in the southwestern United States, particularly in northern California (nCA), have grown in size and severity in the past decade. As they have grown larger, they have been associated with large emissions of absorbing aerosols and heat into the troposphere. Utilizing satellite observations from MODIS, CERES, and AIRS as well as reanalysis from MERRA-2, the meteorology associated with fires during the wildfire season (June–October) was discerned over the nCA-NV (northern California and Nevada) region during the period 2003–2022. Wildfires in the region have a higher probability of occurring on days of positive temperature (T) anomalies and negative relative humidity (RH) anomalies, making it difficult to discern the radiative effects of aerosols that are concurrent with fires. To attempt to better isolate the effects of large fire emissions on meteorological variables, such as clouds and precipitation, variable anomalies on high fire emission days (90th percentile) were compared with low fire emission days (10th percentile) and were further stratified based on whether surface relative humidity (RHs) was anomalously high (75th percentile) or low (25th percentile) compared with typical fire season conditions. Comparing the simultaneously high fire emission and high RHs data with the simultaneously low fire emission and high RHs data, positive tropospheric T anomalies were found to be concurrent with positive AOD anomalies. Further investigation found that due to shortwave absorption, the aerosols heat the atmosphere at a rate of 0.041 ± 0.016 to 0.093 ± 0.019 K d−1, depending on whether RH conditions are anomalously positive or negative. The positive T anomalies were associated with significant negative 850–300 hPa RH anomalies during both 75th percentile RHs conditions. Furthermore, high fire emission days under high RHs conditions are associated with negative CF anomalies that are concurrent with the negative RH anomalies. This negative CF anomaly is associated with a significantly negative regional precipitation anomaly and a positive net top-of-atmosphere radiative flux anomaly (a warming effect) in certain areas. The T, RH, and CF anomalies under the simultaneously high fire emission and high RHs conditions compared with the simultaneously low fire emission and high RHs conditions have a significant spatial correlation with AOD anomalies. Additionally, the vertical profile of these variables under the same stratification is consistent with positive black carbon mass mixing ratio anomalies from MERRA-2. However, causality is difficult to discern, and further study is warranted to determine to what extent the aerosols are contributing to these anomalies. 

Abstract Previous studies suggest that greenhouse gas-induced warming can lead to increased fine particulate matter concentrations and degraded air quality. However, significant uncertainties remain regarding the sign and magnitude of the response to warming and the underlying mechanisms. Here, we show that thirteen models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 all project an increase in global average concentrations of fine particulate matter in response to rising carbon dioxide concentrations, but the range of increase across models is wide. The two main contributors to this increase are increased abundance of dust and secondary organic aerosols via intensified West African monsoon and enhanced emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, respectively. Much of the inter-model spread is related to different treatment of biogenic volatile organic compounds. Our results highlight the importance of natural aerosols in degrading air quality under current warming, while also emphasizing that improved understanding of biogenic volatile organic compounds emissions due to climate change is essential for numerically assessing future air quality.